Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 25 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
15 other detections within 20 km in the last 24 hours, the nearest <1 km from here.
This alert expired on 17 September 2026 at 05:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 15th strongest of the 49 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 30 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 8 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flood Warning issued September 16 at 8:35PM MST until September 16 at 10:45PM MST by NWS Phoenix AZ
Urban PEI: 4,847,348 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 30 March 2026
- September 17, 2026 · score 46 · 3.8 km
- August 11, 2026 · score 52 · 4.8 km
- August 13, 2026 · score 52 · 5.3 km
How we know
3 recorded sources include NOAA; independence is not established by this count.
Our own score for this event is 46 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 46 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.91/1 |
| Coordinates | 33.4997, -111.9317 |
| Nearest City | Scottsdale (3 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 4.8M within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-17T03:35:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.be9e891be980033fc600c43ca29447a26c06cd01.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-17T03:35:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-09-17T03:39:01.868Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flood Warning |
| Urgency | Expected |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Maricopa, AZ; Maricopa, AZ; Pinal, AZ |
| Headline | Flood Warning issued September 16 at 8:35PM MST until September 16 at 10:45PM MST by NWS Phoenix AZ |
| Expires | 2026-09-16T22:45:00-07:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Phoenix AZ |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 3 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.be9e891be980033fc600c43ca29447a26c06cd01.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ab4b2d6de2ef052c47cdb84c401b573ff49fdf39.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c90dde59664d77169178fecdafa627611671d04b.001.1"] |
| Spc ReportType | wind |
| Spc Speed | UNK |
| Spc Location | 2 W East Mesa |
| Spc County | Maricopa |
| Spc State | AZ |
| Spc Comments | Downed power lines in the area of Higley Road to 56th street and Adobe Road to Main Street in Mesa. Timing estimated from radar. (PSR) |
| Iem TypeSummary | F |
| Iem City | 4 NNW Paradise Valley |
| Iem County | Maricopa |
| Iem State | AZ |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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